Latest Posts

  • Raising the White Flag

    Aug 13, 2008 / 3:56pm / in Eastern Europe, General, Interest Rates, News Releases, Western Europe, Forex News

    It is not easy for many to admit that they made an error. It seems the President Trichet might finally be starting to embark on that difficult path. After raising rates in the Euro-Zone over the protests of many top figures within that continent, Trichet finally admitted what the rest of the world had realized some time ago: the Euro-Zone’s growth prospects are weak. This announcement/confession reflects that the ECB is starting to question if it did the right thing in raising rates.

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  • The Calm Before the Storm

    Jul 31, 2008 / 4:00pm / in Americas, Economics, General, News Releases, United States Dollar, Forex News

    Tomorrow is the one for all the marbles. The single most important economic announcement for the USD takes place tomorrow: Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs). Despite today’s very important announcement of US GDP for Q2, the EUR/USD essentially stood pat around 1.56. What is special about NFPs is that, unlike announcements such as rate decisions or GDP results, predicting the outcome is often like finding a needle in a haystack. The unpredictability of this announcement, coupled with its importance, generally make it the largest “market-moving” announcement for the USD.

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  • Kicking Our Addiction

    Jul 2, 2008 / 9:01am / in Economics, General, News Releases, Oil, Forex News

    In the past 15 years, the automobile industry has witnessed monumental shifts, such as the boom in the popularity of the SUV, a Japanese company becoming the world’s largest automaker, and the rise of the hybrid. However, one thing in common between June of 1993 and June of 2008 in the world of automobiles is that roughly the same amount of cars were sold. Today it was announced that US auto sales reached a 15-year low, and I think that it is a fitting reflection of the larger economic situation.

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  • Random Country Report: Part 2 - Egypt

    Jun 27, 2008 / 12:32pm / in Africa, Fundamental, General, Interest Rates, News Releases, Forex News

    The markets are closed, Wall-E is opening in theatres, and by now most people have at least a foot out the door for the weekend. After writing all week about the USD, the Fed, and about how I am a better forecaster of market movements than my colleague John, I have decided to do the second piece in the Random Country Report Series. Excluding Antarctica and its rather inactive central bank (please see below), the continent with the least amount of coverage in the world of foreign exchange is Africa.

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  • Game Time!

    Jun 24, 2008 / 4:14pm / in Fundamental, General, Interest Rates, News Releases, United States Dollar, Forex News

    As I have explained before, there are some days when there is little of note in the FOREX world, so I get the chance to research a random economy somewhere in the world. Today (and I’m sure tomorrow) is not such a day. Everyone’s favorite superpower, the United States of America, came out with important economic data today, and will have even more important data tomorrow. US Consumer Confidence was lower then expected, and the lowest it has been since 1992.

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  • Random Country Report: India Revisited

    Jun 23, 2008 / 12:57pm / in Asia, General, Interest Rates, News Releases, Forex News

    My assignment for the day: write 200 times “Next time I will not get too excited when I write about India’s short term economic situation.” For those who have been following India in the past few days, the developments seem anything but the rosy picture I painted last time around. Sure, in the long run, India is still poised to have solid and sustainable growth. However, their current battle with inflation may be more than just a bump in the road.

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  • If You Start Pushing A Snowball Down A Hill…

    Jun 19, 2008 / 12:42pm / in Americas, General, News Releases, Forex News

    On June 28, 1914, Gavrilo Princip assassinated the heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne, leading to the onset of the Great War. Indirectly, Princip’s actions led not only to WWI, but also to WWII and as the Cold War. In other words, Princip inadvertently became one of the most important figures of the 20th century.

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  • US Dollar - Predicting the Future

    Jun 13, 2008 / 10:27am / in Canadian Dollar, Currency, Fundamental, News Releases, Forex News

    The surprising rally of the US Dollar this week has inevitably led to what seems like everyone and their niece predicting just how long it will last. My 10-year old niece doesn’t like the dollar, and though she’s a very bright girl, please note that she based her reasoning on the Canadian dollar looking a lot cooler than its American counterpart. Given that for several years the USD has done little but suffer, it’s of little surprise that few people are giving the greenback a chance.

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  • Financial Conditions Look to Be Better

    Aug 24, 2007 / 7:18am / in Economics, Interest Rates, News Releases, Forex News

    Calm seems to be returning to international financial markets.  US economic data released today surprised to the upside.  The US dollar is even losing its safe-haven bid with fear not as dominant in the market as in days past.  We could even see conditions set up for a normalization of credit and liquidity in the last quarter of the year.

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  • Dollar Recovers from Recent Losses

    Jul 17, 2007 / 6:40am / in Americas, Currency, Economics, General, Interest Rates, Money, News Releases, Forex News

    In the highly volatile forex market the dollar rebounded slightly from a previous falling trend. A government report today unexpectedly showed a record level of U.S. securities bought by foreign investors in May. Holdings in U.S. stocks, bonds, and notes rose to a net $126.1 billion in May, up from a net $80.3 billion in April. This surge is an indication that confidence in the U.S. economy has not diminished.

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