Aug 13, 2008 / 3:56pm / in Eastern Europe, General, Interest Rates, News Releases, Western Europe, Forex News
It is not easy for many to admit that they made an error. It seems the President Trichet might finally be starting to embark on that difficult path. After raising rates in the Euro-Zone over the protests of many top figures within that continent, Trichet finally admitted what the rest of the world had realized some time ago: the Euro-Zone’s growth prospects are weak. This announcement/confession reflects that the ECB is starting to question if it did the right thing in raising rates.
Jun 30, 2008 / 4:11pm / in Eastern Europe, Fundamental, General, Interest Rates, Western Europe, Forex News
With this week’s ECB’s decision all but official, a more important question looms: what’s next? The ECB is a bank whose primary focus — witnessed in both its charter and its past actions — is price stability. Despite poor economic performance in recent months, the ECB essentially has to raise rates this week, as the Euro-Zone’s current inflation level is double the target of 2%. While President Trichet and his peers may pray that a single, small hike will be enough to curb rising inflation, the more likely scenario is that the policy move will not have a huge effect.
Jun 27, 2008 / 12:32pm / in Africa, Fundamental, General, Interest Rates, News Releases, Forex News
The markets are closed, Wall-E is opening in theatres, and by now most people have at least a foot out the door for the weekend. After writing all week about the USD, the Fed, and about how I am a better forecaster of market movements than my colleague John, I have decided to do the second piece in the Random Country Report Series. Excluding Antarctica and its rather inactive central bank (please see below), the continent with the least amount of coverage in the world of foreign exchange is Africa.
Jun 24, 2008 / 4:14pm / in Fundamental, General, Interest Rates, News Releases, United States Dollar, Forex News
As I have explained before, there are some days when there is little of note in the FOREX world, so I get the chance to research a random economy somewhere in the world. Today (and I’m sure tomorrow) is not such a day. Everyone’s favorite superpower, the United States of America, came out with important economic data today, and will have even more important data tomorrow. US Consumer Confidence was lower then expected, and the lowest it has been since 1992.
Jun 23, 2008 / 12:57pm / in Asia, General, Interest Rates, News Releases, Forex News
My assignment for the day: write 200 times “Next time I will not get too excited when I write about India’s short term economic situation.” For those who have been following India in the past few days, the developments seem anything but the rosy picture I painted last time around. Sure, in the long run, India is still poised to have solid and sustainable growth. However, their current battle with inflation may be more than just a bump in the road.
Jun 23, 2008 / 9:28am / in Fundamental, General, Interest Rates, United States Dollar, Western Europe, Forex News
In some weeks, the news highlight in the FOREX world is an Italian report on car sales. Other weeks, the major headline is that Nigerian workers are striking against the oil companies. However, this week, there’s plenty to be excited about, especially the most important gathering since the meeting of the Five Families: the U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting.
Ladies and Gentlemen, start your engines.
Jun 18, 2008 / 10:27am / in Asia, Fundamental, General, Interest Rates, Forex News
Some days, I know exactly what I’m going to write about. On days that I don’t, I usually peruse through the news, trying to find something that piques my interest. Today’s top headlines in the currency sector centering on the US Dollar not doing anything as there’s little to trade on... thanks for the help world. So, I have decided that on days such as this, a day with little of note on the economic calendar, I would focus on a country (and its currency) that rarely gets much discussion in the world of FOREX. Today, that country is India.
Jun 16, 2008 / 12:25pm / in Americas, Currency, Fundamental, Interest Rates, Oil, United States Dollar, Forex News
Last week I mentioned that though the G8 conference would impact the US dollar in the short term, the ultimate fate of the USD will ultimately be determined more by Bernanke than by anyone else. The Group of Eight’s meeting has come and gone, offering little good news for the USD. In the FOREX market, that “little good news” led to bad news for the USD, as the greenback surrendered some of the territory it had gained last week. So with the conference in the rear-view mirror… let’s look ahead.
Aug 24, 2007 / 7:18am / in Economics, Interest Rates, News Releases, Forex News
Calm seems to be returning to international financial markets. US economic data released today surprised to the upside. The US dollar is even losing its safe-haven bid with fear not as dominant in the market as in days past. We could even see conditions set up for a normalization of credit and liquidity in the last quarter of the year.
Aug 23, 2007 / 8:31am / in Carry Trading, Interest Rates, Japanese Yen, United States Dollar, Forex News
Financial markets look to be rebounding after their huge drops in the last couple of weeks. Markets have seen an uptick in value and, and recent news only seems to support that trend. The primary effects of this movement on the foreign exchange market have been twofold: providing the Fed with justification to slow down the easing process and giving Mrs. Watananbe the ability to resume the carry trade.